John Davis Consulting

UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives

Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America

Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup

Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem

Post: Monday, May 21, 2012       Vol. V, No. 17      2:13 pm

Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America

Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.

On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.

Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”

• Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
• Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
• Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.

It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention.  A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.

National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup

On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall.  North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion.  “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.

National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.

CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem

CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.

Hamby points out what I have concluded for years:  “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”

Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”

“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”

CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem.  Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.

With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives

Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.

Post: Monday, May 14, 2012       Vol. V, No. 16      3:13 pm

Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican Leadership Emergence

Forecast: A historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives.

The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.

Strong leadership is essential for a winning political organization.  Without strong leaders, party factions will turn on each other rather than stand united against the opposition.

After decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles:

• Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s; and she can’t stop the party Executive Committee from keeping the embattled state party chairman after she called for his resignation.
• Perdue’s predecessor, Gov. Easley, was so indifferent to the Democratic Party that he didn’t go to the state or national conventions … or speak to the NAACP state convention.
• Democrats have lost the decisive influence of Eastern NC because they do not have an Eastern NC candidate in the governor’s race like they’ve had for decades: Jim Hunt, D-Wilson; Mike Easley, D-Brunswick; Beverly Perdue, D-Craven.
• Eastern NC Christian social conservative Democrats, black and white, are disappointed with the party leadership’s stand against Amendment One (Obama, Perdue, Dalton).
• Eastern NC Democratic influence in the General Assembly collapsed with the end of the era of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, and with the resignation of Majority Leader Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland.  Contributing to the decline was the retirement of powerful insiders like Sen. R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, President of the Senate Caucus; Charlie Albertson, D-Duplin, Agriculture Committee Chairman; and with the loss of Appropriations Committee Co-Chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash).

Furthermore, Democrats have been rocked by an era of scandal including former party leaders like Gov. Easley, Speaker Black, Agriculture Commissioner Phipps, U.S. Rep. Frank Balance, Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. R.C. Soles, Rep. Thomas Wright, and numerous members of the staffs and campaign teams of governor’s Easley and Perdue.

North Carolina No Longer a Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out

Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.

How could the Obama political organization misread North Carolina so badly?

• Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
• Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
• Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
• Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
• Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
• Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.

The big mistake the Obama camp made was in thinking that Obama carried North Carolina because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic.  Wrong.  He was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.

The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama.  With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.

• Since 2010, Democrats have lost the majority party/majority district status in NC.  And, they no longer have the leverage of political power to gain a fundraising advantage.
• Since 2010, Republicans have gained the leverage of power for a fundraising edge AND 30 Senate districts likely to elect a Republican to only 18 for the Democrats.  Republicans only need 26 to keep their majority in the Senate.  There are 70 GOP-friendly House districts to only 42 for the Democrats.  Republicans need 61 to keep their majority.
• The Republican advantage in the 13 congressional districts has grown from 7 to 10.

The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discretely redirect the campaign’s North Carolina resources to greener pastures.

Republican Leaders Strengthen; GOP Base Solidifies Over Amendment One

Concurrent with the collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party has been the rise a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party.  Those who led the successful battle in 2010, like Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger from Eden and Majority Leader Harry Brown from Jacksonville, along with Speaker Thom Tillis from Huntersville and Majority Leader Skip Stam from Apex on the House side, now wield the political power over the state budget.

Legislative leaders, along with party chairman Robin Hayes and an exceptionally talented team of political professionals, are the new best and brightest in North Carolina political circles.

In the past, disunity has kept Republicans in North Carolina from taking advantage of opportunities.  The 61% to 39% rout on the Amendment One campaign was a galvanizing experience for state Republicans, leading to my analysis in The News & Observer May 9:

At a time of economic crisis it was politically risky for Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly to initiate a statewide constitutional vote on a social issue like the Marriage Amendment.  However, thanks to their landslide victory on May 8, the state GOP will now enjoy a win-win of the highest order.  They win the loyalty and enthusiastic support of their elated social and religious conservatives, and they neutralized the issue as fodder for Democrats in the General Election.  By this fall, the Marriage Amendment controversy will be old news to just about everyone except those elated social and religions conservatives.  Their victory will continue to motivate them all year to do the hard work of winning campaigns for conservatives.

Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity is what leads me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard

“Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”

Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee

Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012       Vol. V, No. 15      3:13 pm

I heard that Mitt Romney ended his speech last weekend to a group of the GOP faithful by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” That bit of humor reveals Romney’s biggest problem among fiscal conservatives: you can’t trust him to be the conservative he now claims to be; too much history of flip-flopping to the contrary.

During the last decade, the nation trusted Republicans with all of the power and they let us down.  Under Republican President George W. Bush, and a Republican congress led by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Republicans spent money like crazed liberal Democrats and started The Great Recession that cost us 8.5 million jobs and brought our country to the brink of bankruptcy.

Who can be trusted?  Is trustworthiness too much to expect in our political leaders?

In the fall of 2008, there was only one other option on the ballot: the Democrats.  So, we put them in charge with great hope for change in Washington and a restoration of our country’s financial integrity.  Well, that turned out to be the proverbial fox guarding the henhouse.

Now we are stuck: do we keep the big spending liberals in power who have not figured out how to get us back on our own two feet or do we put the big spending conservatives in power who knocked us off our feet in the first place?

Have we forgotten that during the administration of Republican President George W. Bush we went from a budget surplus to a national debt of $4.9 trillion?  Have we forgotten that the banking crisis, subprime mortgages crisis, real estate crisis, Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts, auto manufacturing crisis, and The Great Recession happened on the Republican watch?

So, how about trustworthiness?  Who can I trust to do the right thing by the country?

Unfortunately, that’s like asking, who is more trustworthy to do the right thing: the Republicans in the U.S. House or the Democrats in the U.S. Senate? Got the picture? Trustworthiness is an unreasonable expectation for elected officials.  Both have proven themselves untrustworthy.

Political Math: Obama’s Job Approval is High because Bush’s was so Low

Last week, Gallup’s job approval number for Barack Obama’s was 50%.  Per Gallup, his average for April was 47%.  President Bush had a job approval of 25% in the fall of 2008.

I am persuaded that the ONLY reason President Obama has sustained a near-50% job approval in the midst of high unemployment and a debilitating sovereign debt crisis is a fear of giving the country back to the Bush team.

The Bush team is the Albatross around Romney’s neck. That’s why Jeb Bush, arguably the most competent and level-headed Republican on the American political stage today, cannot be seriously considered as Vice President.  Wrong last name.  Who would want a third Bush term?

The only way that President George W. Bush had such a historic low 25% job approval is that Republican voters in 2008 agreed with Democrats and Independents that Bush and his team were responsible for the economic crisis and could no longer be trusted to manage the country.

Why would we put that group back in charge?  When President Bush was sworn in on January 21, 2001, Gallup polling showed that only 22% of Americans thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic.  When President Obama was sworn in on January 20, 2009, Gallup polling showed that the number of Americans who thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic and grown to 86%.

That’s why Romney must distance himself from all things Bush.

Republicans and Democrats have Different Priorities/Worries

So, what are the most important problems of the day?  According to Gallup, the only replies with a 10%-or-greater group of voters to the question, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? are:

• Economy in general                           32%
• Unemployment/Jobs                           25%
• Dissatisfaction with Government       12%
• Federal budget deficit/debt                11%

All other problems are single-digit numbers. Only 9% said health care was the most important problem; only 8% named Fuel/Oil Prices as the most important problem; 5% said Education; 2% said Taxes; 2% said Immigration/Illegal Aliens; 2% said War; 1% said National Security; 1% said Crime/Violence; 1% said Abortion.

So, which one of the two candidates likely to face off in this fall’s presidential contest has the skill set to take on the most important problems of the day?

It all comes down to the skills to deal with the most important problems of the day, and, with few exceptions, that comes down to your party affiliation. A March 28, 2012 study by Gallup shows a distinct difference in how Democrats and Republicans answered the “most important problem” question.

• 84% of Republicans said Federal Spending/Budget Deficit was an issue that worried them “a great deal.” Only 42% of Democrats agreed.
• 71% of Republicans said Size and Power of the Federal Government worried them “a great deal.” Only 31% of Democrats agreed.
• 46% of Republicans said Availability/Affordability of Health Care worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 69% of Democrats were worried about health care.
• 34% of Republicans said Hunger and homelessness worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 53% of Democrats were worried about the poor.

Look at where Democrats, Republicans … and Independents Agree

The political value of the Gallup study is not just in seeing where the parties disagree, it’s in seeing where they agree:

• Both parties are highly worried about the Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment
• Neither party is highly worried about Crime, Drugs, Environment, Terrorism, Race Issues

But perhaps the greatest political value of the Gallup study is in seeing where Independent voters come down on the issues that both parties see as important.

• Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Federal Spending/Budget Deficit issue (56%) as Republicans (84%), although more concerned than Democrats (42%).
• Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Size and Power of the Federal Government issue (40%) as Republicans (71%), although more concerned than Democrats (31%).
• Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment are important to all three groups.
• Independent voters are more worried about the Availability/Affordability of Health Care issue (61%) than Republicans (46 %), much closer to the Democrats (69%).

Bottom line, since voters do not trust either party anymore, the 2012 winners will be those who make the best case that they have the skill set to deal with the issues relating to the Economy, Unemployment and Gas Prices. And, the winners of the all-important Independent vote will be those who can add Availability/Affordability of Healthcare to their list of core competencies.

It strikes me that as of today, May 1, 2012, presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has the perfect skill set for the problems of the day provided he’s willing to flip-flop one more time and take credit for being the architect of Obamacare, to lock in the Independent vote, and provided he joins the American majority in its fear and loathing of a third Bush term by distancing himself from anyone associated with the Bush administration.

That should not be a stretch for a pathological flip-flopper who allegedly ended his speech last weekend by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”