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UPDATE – Governor Perdue: from Dumb Luck to Lame Duck; Slim Odds of Winning a Second term as Governor of North Carolina Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18 UPDATED JANUARY 26, 2012 “What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I
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UPDATE - Governor Perdue: from Dumb Luck to Lame Duck; Slim Odds of Winning a Second term as Governor of North Carolina
Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18 UPDATED JANUARY 26, 2012
“What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life.” Imaginary musings of Gov. Perdue as envisioned by Democrat consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, March 3, 2011
EDITOR’S NOTE 1/26/2012: Today’s news that Gov. Beverly Perdue will not seek reelection comes as no surprise. Throughout her administration, polls have put her 10 points behind in a rematch with her GOP rival Pat McCrory, and her job approval in the mid-30s, with the number of North Carolinians disapproving of the job she is doing near or above 50%. Eventually, her negative ratings raised so much doubt about her re-electability that many of her financial backers switched their support to Republican Pat McCrory.
The erosion of her financial support was the straw that broke the camels back. Last November 2, the News & Observer carried a story titled McCrory nabs Perdue backers, in which many of her former supporters talked about why they were jumping ship. Here are two examples:
“It’s absolutely nothing personal,” said Democrat George Jones, a former mayor of Jacksonville and Perdue backer and the host of a McCrory fundraiser. “Bev has swung hard to the left,” he continued. “I can’t support her policies and the direction she’s pursuing for this state.”
Another former supporter, Danny McQueen, a Morehead City furniture store owner, said, “She had an opportunity to work with Republicans and she chose not to do that. … That’s the reason that I switched.”
Last year, the July 28 John Davis Political Report titled, Governor Perdue: From Dumb Luck to Lame Duck, concluded, “I submit that after a dismal year of ineffective leadership, as judged by chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … as judged by one major legislative failure after another … retiring after this term is her only choice. She is a lame duck.”
What follows is that report in its entirety, so that you can see that the handwriting has been on the wall for a long time:
Governor Perdue: from Dumb Luck to Lame Duck; Slim Odds of Winning a Second term as Governor of North Carolina
Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18
“What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life.” Imaginary musings of Gov. Perdue as envisioned by Democrat consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, March 3, 2011
This Week’s Veto Overrides Signal the Inevitable Decision for Governor Perdue
With all due respect, if Governor Beverly Perdue cannot stop the veto overrides of the budget and some the most significant pieces of reform legislation in decades … including Regulatory Reform, Medical Malpractice Reform, Medicaid/Health Choice Provider Requirement, and today’s Abortion reform … then she needs to seriously reconsider a run for a second term.
Gary Pearce, one of North Carolina’s most successful Democratic campaign consultants and author of the biography of Jim Hunt, ruminated in his blog in March that Perdue just may be looking at her situation and thinking that if she didn’t run she could do as she pleased, veto any bill she didn’t like, and go out on her own terms. “Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life,” surmised Pearce. He ended his blog with, “That’s not a bad life choice.”
I submit that after a dismal year of ineffective leadership, as judged by chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … as judged by one major legislative failure after another … retiring after this term is her only choice. She is a lame duck.
Should Perdue Run? Numbers Say “No” Despite Record of 10 Wins and “1 Loss”
Governor Beverly Perdue, a Craven County Democrat, is one of the most successful campaigners in North Carolina history. She has won every race “except one,” including two terms in the N.C. House, five terms in the N.C. Senate, two statewide bids for Lt. Governor, and her 2008 race against Treasurer Richard Moore for the Democratic Party nominee for governor.
In 2008, Perdue failed to win the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory, but was handed the keys to the mansion anyway thanks to historic voter registration and turnout by the Obama campaign for President. Dumb luck. No President Obama; no Governor Perdue.
- Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America. Dumb luck.
- In a mid-July 2011 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 34% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 49% disapproved.
- PPP poll: “Independents disapproved by a wide margin.” Only 31% of NC’s Independent voters approve of Perdue’s performance as governor; 57% disapprove.
- PPP poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP poll: “McCrory’s advantage is built on a massive lead among Independents,” (57% to only 28% for Perdue).
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed this week with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reporting raising a little over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
A strong incumbent Governor seeking a second term would have raised considerably more than $1.3 million by now … and certainly should have raised a lot more than the challenger.
Forecast: Obama Wins White House in 2012 Without NC; Perdue Loses.
It’s very important to remember that Obama won North Carolina by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million. North Carolina was Obama’s closest win despite a weak Republican opponent and a year-long commitment of millions of dollars to a ground game second to none in state history … as measured by new registrations of African Americans, young voters and a record voter turnout.
The Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff. These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day. Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%). African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.
Yet despite Obama’s investment yielding hundreds of thousands of new registered Democrats and millions of early voters in 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory by only 145,021 votes out of 4.27 million. It was just dumb luck.
Even if the economy begins to recover, Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina. If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race; especially as a lame duck.
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New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%; Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%. New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762) “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the
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New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%;
Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%.
New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762)
“That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
Ron Paul, Tuesday, January 10, New Hampshire “Victory Speech”
Romney: Viewed as Most Likely to Beat Obama; Least Likely to Satisfy Conservatives on Managing Federal Budget … but Most Acceptable. Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in NC?
Post: Friday, January 13, 2012 Vol. V, No. 2
Romney’s NH GOP Primary Win Not as Big as “Acceptable” Win this Week
The most significant presidential campaign development this week was not Mitt Romney’s decisive win in New Hampshire. After all, he is New Hampshire’s “homeboy” as described by fellow GOP presidential contender Jon Huntsman. And, only about half of New Hampshire’s GOP Primary voters were either Republicans or self-described conservatives.
Tuesday’s NBC Exit Poll shows that only 49% of the New Hampshire Republican Primary voters think of themselves as Republican. Those who think of themselves as Independent made up 47% of the GOP primary voters; 4% think of themselves as Democrats!
The same exit poll shows that 48% of the New Hampshire GOP Primary voters think of themselves as either Moderate (35%) or Liberal (13%). Only 52% of New Hampshire Primary voters consider themselves Conservative! Only 22% say they are evangelical Christians.
So, what motivated New Hampshire GOP Primary voters to give Mitt Romney a big win? Answer: He is viewed as the most likely to defeat President Obama in November. Note: His conservative bona fides were considered the least important in New Hampshire.
- Can defeat Barack Obama 35%
- Has the right experience 26%
- Has strong moral character 22%
- Is a true conservative 13%
A combined 82% of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters polled said that they are either “Dissatisfied, but not angry” with the Obama administration (42%), or “Angry” with the Obama administration (40%). Why? It’s because a combined 95% are “Very worried” about the direction of the nation’s economy (69%), or are “Somewhat worried” (26%).
Bottom line: New Hampshire GOP Primary voters had two things on their mind when they gave Romney the big win Tuesday, other than being their “homeboy,” he has the best skill set to deal with their #1 issue, the economy (62%), and he is the most likely to defeat Obama (61%).
Big win for Romney Tuesday, but not as significant as Tuesday’s Gallup poll.
Gallup: 59% of Republicans See Romney as “Acceptable” Nominee
Far more significant than the New Hampshire GOP Primary win for Romney is a new Gallup survey released Tuesday showing that 59% of all Republicans around the country see Romney as an “acceptable GOP nominee for president.” According to Gallup, Romney is “the only candidate with majority support on this measure.”
The same survey shows only 46% of the nation’s Republicans see Gingrich as an acceptable nominee, and only 45% see Santorum would be acceptable. A majority of Republicans around the country say that Perry, Paul, and Huntsman are unacceptable as the GOP nominee.
The most positive result of the Gallup survey for Romney fans is that the same number of conservative Republicans found Romney an acceptable GOP nominee (59%) as Moderate/Liberal Republicans. That is a major breakthrough for Romney.
Bottom Line: Mitt Romney is the only GOP contender with broad acceptability across ideological lines among the nation’s Republicans. That decisive support can be seen in Gallup tracking polls that show Romney leading all other GOP contenders by better than 2-to-1 (Romney 34%; Santorum 15%; Gingrich 14%; Paul 13%; Perry 5%; Huntsman 2%).
Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in North Carolina?
According to Gallup’s tracking on the question, “If the election were held today …,” President Obama would defeat Romney by 50% to 48%. Same result if Gingrich were the nominee.
Here in North Carolina, if the election were held today, Obama would defeat Romney by one point, 46%/45%, would tie Santorum 46%/46%, and would defeat all other GOP contenders by 5 points or more, according to polling by Public Policy Polling from January 5 – 8, 2012.
The biggest threat to the Republican presidential game plan in North Carolina is a Libertarian uprising. You can see that threat clearly in the Public Policy Poll, showing that Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, former two-term Governor of New Mexico, would get 8% of the vote in North Carolina, most of which would hurt Romney if he is the GOP nominee.
Johnson announced his switch to the Libertarian Party in late December at a news conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “I have been a Republican my entire life,” he said. “I don’t view this as leaving the Republican Party as much as the Republican Party has left me.”
The least likely voters to concede the GOP nomination this year are the Ron Paul self-described “dangerous” supporters. “I sort of have to chuckle when they describe you and me as being dangerous,” Paul said with a big grin during his “victory speech” Tuesday night, “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
That “status quo” clearly includes the Republican status quo.
Obama’s Best Hope for a Second Term
My view is that Obama will not do nearly as well in North Carolina as he did in 2008, when he won by only 14,171 votes out of 4,310,789 cast.
He has lost the surprise factor, lost the enthusiastic support of his base (African American voters excepted), and has raised serious doubts about whether he has the credentials for dealing with the most important issues facing the next president: managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis. Even if he wins a second term he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
Obama’s best hope for a second term is a GOP divided by the Ron Paul Libertarians, the Rick Santorum social conservatives and the Tea Party congressional Republicans who have helped drive the job approval of the U.S. Congress to historic lows.
Our nation’s problems are bigger than party or ideology. Irresponsible members of both parties got us into the mess were are in, and irresponsible members of both parties are keeping us in it.
What is the definition of irresponsible members? It is: Those members who think their party or their ideology is more important than bipartisan collaboration on managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis.
President Obama’s best hope for a second term is a dysfunctional Congress and a divided GOP.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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