Obama’s Probability of Winning in 2012: 48%; Congressional Republicans and Tea Party Hurting GOP

by johndavis, August 12, 2011

[audio:http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-11-IPD-Obama.mp3|titles=Aug 11 IPD Obama] Post: August 12, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 20 “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.” President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011 Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics. Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery
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[audio:http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-11-IPD-Obama.mp3|titles=Aug 11 IPD Obama]

Post: August 12, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 20

“I'm going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.”

President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011

Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics.

Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery facility, President Obama announced that he would release new proposals for job creation “week by week” to stimulate hiring.  “I'm going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one,” Obama said.

Obama also seized the bully pulpit yesterday to chide political leaders for partisan gridlock.  “There is nothing wrong with our country. There is something wrong with the politics,” he said.

Whether Americans will be encouraged by Obama’s “job for every American” pledge, most Americans probably agree with his statement, “There is something wrong with the politics.”

In the aftermath of the debt debate, the President and the Congress are seeing their lowest approval ratings.  However, August polling shows that the Tea Party and Republicans in Congress are hurting the GOP’s chances at defeating Obama in his race for a second term.

  • Pres. Obama's job approval is an anemic 43.3%, with 50.4% disapproving (a new low)
  • Congressional job approval is only 16.8%, with 77% disapproving (a new low)
  • A record 20-year low 21% say most in Congress deserve re-election (a new low)
  • Overall support for the Tea Party has dipped to 25% (a new low)
  • Despite Obama’s low numbers, 41% approve of his jobs policy when compared to the 26% who approve of the jobs policy of the Republicans in Congress.

Investors Political Daily Shows Obama’s Probability of 2012 Win is 48%

Last August, the John Davis Political Report unveiled a new feature Investors Political Daily.  A dozen key political and economic trends were tracked daily to give readers a sense of how the elections were likely to unfold.

Thanks to tracking by Investors Political Daily, the John Davis Political Report projected the winner in 47 of 47 North Carolina Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 North Carolina House races (five races were toss ups).

No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately.

The Investors Political Daily this election cycle features 12 key economic and political variables.  They will be update daily where practical (Obama Job Approval) or as soon as the updates are available (Unemployment).

Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of Win in 2012:

  • Economic conditions in US … excellent, good, fair, poor
  • Obama job approval
  • Presidential generic ballot
  • National party favorability ratings
  • Job creation index
  • Generic Congressional ballot
  • Independent voters
  • Jobs policy approval
  • Consumer spending
  • National party ID
  • Tea Party opinion
  • Unemployment

Next Week’s Investors Political Daily:

  • Obama’s Probability of Winning NC in 2012
  • Perdue’s Probability of Winning NC Governor’s Race

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