No Political Party Has a Predictable Advantage in NC; Charlotte Convention Means Obama is Back in 2012

by johndavis, February 2, 2011

“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention Key Dates in 2012 Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!) Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa
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“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink." ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention

Key Dates in 2012

  • Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!)
  • Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012
  • Republican National Convention in Tampa August 27, 2012
  • Democratic National Convention in Charlotte September 3, 2012
  • General Election Day is November 6, 2012

No political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina … period.

North Carolina became a presidential battleground state in 2008 with President Obama’s historic win.  It continues as a battleground state, despite the GOP takeover of the General Assembly.

Any hope among Republicans that they could gain an early advantage in the 2012 elections by parlaying their exclusive legislative power into unilateral political power has been dashed by the selection of Charlotte as the geographical center of President Obama’s campaign for reelection.

President Obama likes North Carolina.  He came here 8 times in 2008 after his nomination in Denver.  He vacationed here with his family in 2010.  Last month he made a major policy speech at Forsyth Tech.  And now, Charlotte has been selected as the host city for the Democratic National Convention.

"This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink," a senior Democratic official told ABC News. "President Obama will be very active in North Carolina and ... despite what some have speculated, we are going to go as big in 2012 as we did in 2008 -- and that means fighting hard for North Carolina, Virginia and all the states and more that helped elect President Obama in the first place."

It is precisely because no political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina that you need to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report.

No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately last year.  I projected the winner in 47 of 47 NC Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 NC House races (five races were toss ups).  Since the last census, I have correctly projected 1100 of 1144 races in North Carolina … thanks in great part to my analysis of the districts.

I do not lobby, so I have no hesitation with writing objectively and boldly about the political mistakes of legislative leaders and the other factors that drive elections.

I do not have a partisan bias. My value as a political analyst and commentator is in having someone other than a party loyalist keeping you informed about the job party leaders are doing and the implications of their actions, good and bad, for election results in 2012.

I am not a political campaign consultant, so I have no conflict of interest in assessing the strengths of candidates and the status of political races.

Maps do not a majority make

New legislative and congressional districts will be mapped this year, with Republicans in charge for the first time since the 19th Century.  Although you can count on Republicans to draw lines that favor their interests, there are many political forces far more important than the maps that I will be investigating on your behalf … like the 2012 battlefield leadership teams, the money, the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates and their consultants, President Obama’s decisions, the economy, unity/disunity among party leaders in North Carolina, political blunders, renegade uprisings, third-party organizations, the presidential and gubernatorial races, and the unforeseen local, state, national and international events of the day that always come along and shift the probability of success to one group of candidates over the other.

Democrats have been winning in Republican districts for decades because of the strengths and commitment of their leaders; because they recruited better candidates, raised more money and hired the best political professionals in the nation … and they worked harder, at least up until 2010 when all of those traditional Democratic strengths, including leaders, money, candidates and professionals, were seized by Republicans.

Who will seize the advantages of leadership, money, candidates and professional talent?

In 2010, I made the case that Democrats were less competitive due to events that had nothing to do with Republicans:  like a shakeup of key legislative leaders due to retirements; a failed recruitment effort that left 11 Senate Republicans unchallenged and 29 House Republicans unchallenged; the disruption of corruption scandals; the overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation at a time when Democrats had all of the power; a disillusioned and unenthusiastic base; the loss of independent voters; a loss of confidence in President Obama, and the absence of a major investment in voter registration, turnout and straight-party voting as seen in 2008 when the Obama camp spent $ millions in NC.

Democratic loyalists would not have given you an accurate assessment of their political liabilities in 2010, and Republican loyalists are not going to give you an accurate assessment of their liabilities during the 2011-2012 election cycle.

This is where I come in.  The weekly John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle, as well as the partisan momentum tracking in the Late Breaking Trends report, is available to you with the Premium subscription for $485 a year.  Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year.  This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.

The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else.  More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.

Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

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