John Davis Consulting

“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898.  After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Election Day, Nov. 2, 2010

SPECIAL EDITION: Late Breaking Trends & Investors Political Daily

North Carolina Election Results Combined Edition

Republicans Win Historic Majorities in NC Senate and House

Senate: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats; House: 67 Republicans, 52 Democrats, 1 Unaffiliated

Post: Wednesday, November 3, 2010

For the first time since 1898, North Carolina Republicans have won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.

In the 50-member state Senate, Republicans picked up 11 seats currently held by Democrats to seize a 31 seat advantage over 19 seats for the Democrats.  No Republican incumbent lost.

Click here to review the final Investors Political Daily NC Senate report with the “Winner” designated for each race.

John Davis Political Report Accurately Projected 100% of NC Senate Races

The John Davis Political Report accurately forecasted 100% of the NC Senate races.  Here are the highlights:

• As forecasted, the NC Senate will have a Republican majority for the first time since 1898.
• As forecasted, Democrats won all 16 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
• As forecasted, Democrats won the 1 race in which they were projected as “Favored.”
• As forecasted, Republicans won 11 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
• As forecasted, Republicans won all 7 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
• Republicans won two of the three “Toss up” races, including the race for the seat held by former Sen. Tony Rand in Cumberland County (now held by appointee Margaret Dickson), and the seat held by retiring Sen. Charlie Albertson in Duplin, Lenoir and Sampson Counties.
• The 11 seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Republicans are:  Margaret Dickson, Cumberland (Tony Rand’s old seat); Charlie Albertson, Duplin; R.C. Soles, Columbus; Julia Boseman, New Hanover; Don Davis, Green; Tony Foriest, Alamance; Steve Goss, Watauga; Joe Sam Queen, Haywood; John Snow, Cherokee; David Hoyle, Gaston; and A.B. Swindell, Nash.

To review the vote tallies for individual races, go to the State Board of Elections website.

John Davis Political Report Accurately Projected 97% of NC House Races

In the 120-member state House, Republicans picked up 15 seats held by Democrats.

Click here to review the final Investors Political Daily NC House report with the “Winner” designated for each race.  To review the vote tallies for individual races, go to the State Board of Elections website.

The John Davis Political Report accurately forecasted 97% of the NC House races, missing only 4 out of 120.  Here are the highlights:

• As forecasted, the NC House will have a GOP majority for the first time since 1999.
• As forecasted, Democrats won all 28 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
• Democrats won 9 of the 12 races in which they were projected as “Favored.”  I did not anticipate that Douglas Young, John May and Lorene Coates would lose.
• As forecasted, Republicans won 22 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
• Republicans won 12 of the 13 races in which they were projected as “Favored.”  The House 44 race between Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland, and Johnny Dawkins, D-Cumberland was won by Parfitt.
• Republicans won 1 of the 5 “Toss up” races, with Bill Cook defeating Arthur Williams.
• Nelson Cole was defeated by his Unaffiliated challenger Bert Jones.
• Three toss up races were won by Democrats Marian McLawhorn, Grier Martin and Rick Glazier.
• The 15 seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Republicans are:  Arthur Williams, Nelson Cole, Douglas Yongue, John May, Lorene Coates, Alice Graham Underhill, Russell Tucker, Van Braxton, Randy Stewart, Chris Heagarty, Jimmy Love, Hugh Holliman, Cullie Tarleton, Bob England, Jane Whilden.

Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.

What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that 10 major political liabilities unfolded at the same time.  Here are the Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010.  They are in the form of titles to previous editions of the John Davis Political Report.

#1:       A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates

#2:       Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb

#3:       Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame

#4:       A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending

#5:       Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor

#6:       The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy

#7:       Regnat Populus!  Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American

#8:       Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened

#9:       Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative

#10:     Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment

Yesterday, Election Day, I concluded my report this way: The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898.  After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”

Now, in the aftermath of yesterday’s elections, you know why.

I hope that you have enjoyed the John Davis Political Report this election cycle.

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Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

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