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“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010

NOTE:  See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29

Post:  October 29, 2010

No changes since last week’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators.  All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.

Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates.  That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.

The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule.

NOTE:  All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.

Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates.  That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.

GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership:

• The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand.
• The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership.
• Republicans have the political momentum advantage.
• Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money.
• Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction.
• Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating.
• The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time.

Biggest Political Story of the General Election:  The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer.  The headline read:  N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats

Here are the highlights:

• Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
• Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
• Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
• Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006

Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage.  That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts.  Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.

Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.

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