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“Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men among early voters since last Thursday.

Post: October 19, 2010, by John Davis

NOTE:  View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

NC House GOP Likely to Win 62 Seats; Final Count Likely a 65/55 GOP Majority

Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House chart and you will see for the first time that the North Carolina House Republican Caucus now has 62 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today.  Democrats have 52 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today.

If the two parties split the 6 toss-up races, the final count will be 65 Republicans in the North Carolina House, 55 Democrats.

The two changes on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House charts are:

• House District 116: This Buncombe County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Jane Whilden against GOP challenger Tim Moffitt, has been moved from “Toss up” to Moffitt “Favored.”  The move was based on new polling released Monday, the voting history of the district (held for six terms by Republican Rep. Wilma Sherrill), and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.

• House District 9: This Pitt County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Marian McLawhorn against GOP challenger Stan Larson, has now been moved from McLawhorn “Favored” to a “Toss-up.”  The move was based on recent polling that showed McLawhorn trailing her Republican opponent outside the margin of error, and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.

What the 55 State Legislative Polls Say: A historic number of state legislative polls have been conducted this election cycle: 23 Senate races; 32 House races.  Here is the consistent pattern:

• There is greater enthusiasm among Republicans for Republican candidates than among Democrats for Democratic candidates
• Unaffiliated and self-described independent voters are breaking 2-to-1 Republican
• Republicans are consistently shown to be the most likely to vote by far in 2010
• There is a universal dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation and the “Job Approval” of those with power in Washington and Raleigh … all Democrats.

Thanks to the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, all of the 55 legislative poll results can be seen by linking to the NCFEF Poll Tracker report.

Most of the polling has been done by Civitas and the Carolina Strategy Group.  Check out the Civitas polls here. Check out the Carolina Strategy Group polls here.

Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a 12-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

NC Senate GOP Likely to Win 29 Seats; Final Count Likely a 30/20 GOP Majority

The change on today’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate chart is in Senate District 116, a Pitt, Wayne, Green County race pitting incumbent Democrat Don Davis against GOP challenger Rep. Louis Pate.  The race has been moved from “Toss up” to Pate “Favored.”

The move was based on these facts:

• Davis won by only 53% of the vote in 2008, in one of the most Democratic-dominated turnout of voters in modern political history in North Carolina … driven by a year-long commitment of resources by the Obama campaign.  Without the historic voter registration and turnout machine of 2008, Davis cannot win.
• Davis is from Green County, which has less than 10% of the district’s voters.  Pate is from Wayne County, which, along with Pitt County, split the lion’s share of the voters in the district.
• As of the first three days of early voting, Wayne County is in the top 10 counties in the state for early voting of white Republican men.

Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy a 16-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

White Republican Men Lead Record Pace of Early Voting was the headline of yesterday’s Democracy North Carolina press release, reporting the results of the first three days of early voting.  ”Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men.

What caused the dramatic shift in political fortunes?  An economy in crisis was the driving force in 2008; the economy is the driving force in 2010.

In 2008, we were disappointed with our leaders in Washington, especially Republicans, and we made our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box.  In 2010, we are again disappointed with our leaders, who happen to be Democrats both in Washington and Raleigh.  You can count on us to make our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box throughout early voting and on Election Day.

The Democrats are in trouble for exactly the same reasons that got the Republicans in hot water during the past two election cycles.  They have failed to make the case that they can govern better.

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Timing also has a lot to do with who wins campaigns.  In 2010, timing favors Republicans.

Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 19, 2010.

Republicans can count on 62 seats in the 120-member NC House, 65 if the “toss-up” races split.

Republicans can count on 29 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.